Spinning the Web

Hello. Welcome to 2012. As it’s the start of a new year, we thought we should look into the mystical Manifest crystal ball and see what’s predicted for the 12 months ahead in the world of communications. Here’s the PR & Social Media instalment:

PR & SOCIAL MEDIA IN 2012:

1. More than words – multimedia social networks/apps are the ones to watch

The big shift in content creation/demand will be the rise of multimedia focused social networks and apps such as Instagram and Path: these will see the biggest growth spurts in 2012, helping people to share their images in a simpler and more ‘realtime’ way than Facebook. There hasn’t been a huge uptake of Instagram and the likes by brands (with some notable exceptions) but as they gain a bigger audience we’ll see that shift and photo updates will become a standard component of social media campaigns. It’ll be much easier for agencies and brand teams to manage when Instagram pulls its finger out and supports multiple accounts from the app, though.

2. Brand transparency = brand currency

Being open, honest and transparent doesn’t come naturally to some organisations – but if you are engaging on social media platforms it’s essential. Whereas 2011 was the year many brands dipped their toe in the water of transparency, 2012 will be the year that they understand the benefits of it. Domino’s, for instance, took a big, cleansing leap into world of transparency, not only allowing a public (virtually) unfiltered comment and review stream from customers, but mounting it in Times Square. Based on 6872 reviews posted, they gained a four-star rating (out of five), which when done in such an open manner, is not only impressive, but potentially more compelling than 10 five-star ratings in a non-social environment.

3. Welcome to the smart wallet

In terms of device-driven changes to trends and opportunities, the arrival of NFC (Near field communication) in mainstream handsets will see a number of opportunities open up across the communications spectrum. It’s not new technology, but it hasn’t yet been available in enough mainstream handsets for organisations to see a big enough user base to invest in applications – until 2012 that is. The iPhone 5, whether you’re an Apple fan or not, will most likely herald the arrival of mainstream NFC (not the Nokia or Blackberry devices that have sparked little or no development of mass market applications) and by 2014, 1 in 5 smartphone handsets should be NFC enabled. This could see you using your mobile handset to pay for goods instantly by tapping a sensor at the till (or on your computer when shopping online), unlock your office door with a quick wave, check in at a hotel without queueing, log in to your computer without hitting a single key, whizz through the turnstiles at the tube station without your oyster card leaving your wallett, pay for a cab without any cash or cards, add someone to your address book by tapping their business card or book a concert ticket just by touching the poster. Just imagine the implications for marketing. A cool infographic on NFC applications can be found here.

iTV

Amidst rumours of an Apple iTV product (not the Apple TV product that already exists of course), smart TVs will also help to catalyse the social media revolution, integrating social features into programming to evolve the current trend of double-screening into something inherently part of enjoying television. One interesting element of social media’s impact on broadcasting is the renewed focus on watching a programme when it airs in order to enjoy the online banter as it happens (and not have twists and turns in narratives spoiled by other fans in your timeline/news stream).

Ones to watch

A couple of social networks to watch out for: Path is the first network I know that limits the number of friends to 50 – ensuring you only share the most personal and compelling content with the closest of your contacts. This could spark a trend for smaller, simpler networks focused around your close circle of friends and family rather than a huge online network of acquaintances. Pinterest (mentioned above) is growing amazingly, and offers a place for brands to organise and share specific ideas and images. Location based social services will grow in popularity but reduce in number as Facebook and Foursquare wrap up the UK market. Tumblr is nothing new – but through various updates and notable profiles it’s growing again at a rapid rate (900% growth in profiles in the last 12 months!). It might seem like interest is dwindling in Google+ since its launch, but growth is impressive across the world and in November it launched brand pages – it’ll be interesting to see if it can become a solid part of the social media spectrum in 2012. I certainly don’t think it’ll go the way of Google Wave.

Conversation optimisation

Search engines have been played by the SEO industry for decades now, but the onset of the social generation has changed the game significantly. In 2012, we’ll see the influence of social media mentions on search results increase further – especially as Google looks to increase the significance of Google+ further. SEO will have to evolve beyond link building to influencing social mentions – something PR agencies are much more adept at. The key for SEO-savvy PR campaigns then, will be to optimise conversations: how can a campaign not only inspire mentions, but mentions that include the right links from the most influential people alongside the right keywords? It’ll be interesting to see…

The beginning of the end for dedicated social media agencies

I’ve mentioned here before that although many social media agencies do fantastic work, integrated agencies with a grasp of traditional media tactics as well as social media nous will always provide better value for brands and 2012 will see the rising number of social media agencies plateau, ready for a big drop off. Dedicated social media agencies exist in a sub-industry that was desperately needed when PR and advertising agencies were slow to react to the changing media landscape, but in reality it’s a category that has no future. We’ll see more big ideas that stretch across the entire media spectrum, conceived and managed by one integrated agency alongside brand teams in 2012 and fewer campaigns coordinated purely through social media or with a separate agency designated purely to online management. It’s a controversial viewpoint I know, but in my opinion dedicated social media agencies focused on creating and managing online-only campaigns shouldn’t exist.

The big idea is back

The social web is already where we find most of our news – Facebook is only rivalled by Google as the biggest traffic source for news sites. As such, visibility online is more likely to come from big ideas reaching big audiences, rather than relying so much on search terms and the study of search algorithms. 2012 will be the year of the big idea, as creativity is the only tool to give news an inherent ’shareability’ (that’s a horrible word, sorry!) online. Hopefully it’s the first year in a creativity revolution that will see brands becoming braver and more innovative in order to raise their profile amongst social media audiences.